Although the core variable affecting the bond market this year is the regulatory factors that continue to fall, fundamentals still play a role in boosting the bond market. At the beginning of the year, the logic of the risk of a sharp decline in the first half of the year and in the second half of the year has been falsified, which has further exacerbated the adjustment pressure of the market. Looking forward to next year, how will the fundamentals of the economy evolve? In terms of the components of the base, the manufacturing industry is more capable of representing the endogenous growth momentum of the economy, so we think it is very helpful to predict the changes in the manufacturing industry next year to grasp the economy of the whole year. In this report, we will separately look forward to next year's manufacturing investment and related industrial growth and industrial enterprise profits.
One, next year, manufacturing investment or will pick up the bottom
(1) four industries can be used to predict investment in manufacturing industry: chemical raw materials, non-metallic minerals, general purpose and special equipment manufacturing industries.
In the past two years, the productivity policy has weakened the leading role of industrial profits in manufacturing investment. We pointed out that the industrial enterprise profit has a certain predictive significance to the manufacturing investment, which is about a year or so, but the trend of the two shows a certain deviation after 2014. The main reason is that, under the guidance of market and administrative capacity policy, the overcapacity industry has been greatly impacted, the growth of investment is declining, and the signal function of profit to investment is weakening.
(two) overcapacity industry: in the future, the capacity policy will remain stable and the industry concentration will be increased.
This year's overcapacity industry shows a high profit growth rate, but investment is low and even falls into the negative growth range. In the first ten months of this year, the cumulative profit growth of non-metallic mineral manufacturing and chemical raw materials reached 23.2% and 37.9% respectively, while the cumulative growth rate of the corresponding investment was only 1.1% and -3.8%. The continuous implementation of the administrative capacity policy has pushed up the price and brought about a corresponding increase in the profit growth of the corresponding industries. And the reason why the high growth of profit does not bring the corresponding growth of investment, we think there are two main reasons: first, many enterprises are worried about the uncertainty of the future capacity policy, so the investment activities have not been carried out on a large scale; the two is that most of the overcapacity industries are mainly state-owned enterprises, the historical burden of these enterprises Even though the profit recovery is better this year, a large portion of the new profits are used to repay the historical debt, and the overlay of the excess capacity in the capital market is still more prudent, so the enterprises can actually use limited funds for investment.
(three) non capacity surplus Industries: the guiding role of profit for investment is still established, and investment growth will increase next year.
The general and special equipment manufacturing industry is the focus of development at present, and the enterprises in the industry are mainly private enterprises, which are less affected by the regulation policy. Therefore, the logical chain of profit to investment is smooth. The actual data also support this point. The leading role of general and special equipment manufacturing industries in investment is 14 and 17 months respectively. Since this year, the growth rate of general equipment and special equipment manufacturing industry has maintained a significant increase compared with the previous year. The cumulative growth rate in 1-10 months is 14.6% and 27.1% respectively, which means that the growth rate of general equipment and special equipment investment will continue to increase next year.
(four) next year, the investment rate of manufacturing industry will rebound.
In general, we believe that the policy of going to the production capacity will continue to reduce the economic intervention, and it is expected that the deviant relationship between investment and profit growth in the future overcapacity industry will slowly return to normal. In addition, considering that the higher growth rate of non - capacity industry in this year is still set up in the leading logic of investment, the probability of manufacturing investment will pick up at the bottom of the next year.
Two, industrial growth will drop slightly next year, but it will remain stable.
Compared with the previous two years, this year's industrial growth rate showed a "high growth rate at the end of the quarter, and the central level is higher than the previous two years". So what will the growth of industrial growth be next year? We think it can be analyzed from the demand side:
Another part of the investment comes from infrastructure. Considering the low growth rate of general public budgetary revenue and the depletion of the surplus in previous years, the central government continues to regulate local government financing in order to control the size of local government debt, and the market is pessimistic for infrastructure investment next year. But at the same time, next year is in the year of government change. The rule of history tells us that the enthusiasm of local governments in infrastructure investment is higher than before. Therefore, similar to real estate investment, next year, the growth rate of infrastructure investment will be bottomed out.
Overall, judging from manufacturing related industries, the overall fundamentals will remain stable next year. In addition, taking into account the current government's weakening of the economic growth target, the possibility of easing monetary policy is relatively low. Similar to this year, fundamental factors may continue to be regulated, and the future trend of the bond market is more dependent on the changes in financial regulation and the resulting rate of remolding of the financial ecology.